The Old Farmer’s Almanac’s Thanksgiving forecast for 2025 offers a sunny outlook for the East Coast and snow for the Northeast, but its secret formula faces stiff competition from modern computer models. Here’s what the Almanac and other forecasters are saying about the big day.

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Old Farmer’s Almanac founded: 1792 ·
Thanksgiving 2025 date: November 27 ·
Almanac claimed accuracy: 80% ·
Number of U.S. regions on travel map: 6 ·
Average Thanksgiving travel distance: 214 miles

Quick snapshot

1Confirmed facts
2What’s unclear
3Timeline signal
  • September 2025: Almanac publishes Thanksgiving travel weather map (The Old Farmer’s Almanac (established 1792)).
  • October 2025: Local news outlets begin Almanac-based forecast coverage. (The Old Farmer’s Almanac (established 1792))
  • November 27, 2025: Actual weather observed. (The Old Farmer’s Almanac (established 1792))
  • December 2025: Post-Thanksgiving accuracy reviews expected (The Weather Channel (forecast provider)).
4What’s next
  • Post-Thanksday evaluation of Almanac forecast vs. actual conditions. (Climavision (weather analytics))
  • Winter 2025-2026 seasonal forecasts from NOAA and other agencies. (Climavision (weather analytics))
  • Continued debate over Almanac’s accuracy compared to computer models (Climavision (weather analytics)).

Six key facts, one pattern: the Old Farmer’s Almanac relies on a proprietary solar-lunar formula, while modern services lean on numerical models.

Fact Details
Old Farmer’s Almanac founded 1792
Thanksgiving 2025 date November 27
Almanac overall accuracy claim 80%
Winter forecast accuracy (precipitation direction) 83.3% (self-reported)
U.S. regions on travel map 6
Average Thanksgiving travel distance 214 miles

What is the Farmer’s Almanac predicting for the winter in New England?

What’s the coldest month in New England?

  • The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts a colder-than-average winter for New England with above-normal snowfall (The Old Farmer’s Almanac (established 1792)).
  • January is typically the coldest month, with average lows below 20°F in many inland areas (The Old Farmer’s Almanac (climatology data)).
  • Snowfall predictions vary by region: coastal areas see less than inland locations (The Old Farmer’s Almanac (established 1792)).
Why this matters

For New Englanders planning Thanksgiving travel north, packing snow tires is a safe bet. The Almanac’s forecast for a snowy winter matches its own long-range formula, but independent studies suggest its hit rate trails computer models over short horizons.

The implication: If you’re headed to ski country for the holiday weekend, expect early-season snow. But don’t cancel a road trip based solely on a 12‑week‑out projection.

What is the weather going to be like in Florida on Thanksgiving?

Is Florida expected to get another cold front?

  • The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecasts mild, sunny weather for most of Florida on Thanksgiving 2025 (The Old Farmer’s Almanac (established 1792)).
  • Northern Florida may see a slight chance of rain, but no major cold front is expected (The Old Farmer’s Almanac (established 1792)).
  • Temperatures in Orlando and Miami should remain in the 70s°F (The Old Farmer’s Almanac (established 1792)).

The pattern: Florida looks like the holiday winner – warm, mostly dry, and free of arctic blasts. The Almanac’s track record in the Southeast is among its stronger regions, according to its own 83.3% figure.

Who is the most accurate weather predictor?

Is Met Office or BBC weather more accurate?

  • The Weather Company claims 80% accuracy for its forecasts, matching the Old Farmer’s Almanac’s self-reported figure (The Weather Channel (forecast provider)).
  • Studies show the Met Office and BBC have similar accuracy – the BBC uses Met Office data (Climavision (weather analytics)).
  • Forecast accuracy depends on location, time horizon, and model used. The Almanac works best for long-range tendencies, while computer models excel at 1‑ to 7‑day outlooks (Scientific American (science journalism)).

The trade-off: If you need a reliable forecast for Thanksgiving morning, check NOAA’s short-range model. But if you’re planning travel weeks ahead, the Almanac gives you a directional clue – just don’t bet the turkey on it.

Is 2026 going to be cooler than 2025?

Will summer 2026 be hot?

  • Canada forecasts 2026 to be among the hottest years on record, not cooler than 2025 (based on Environment Canada’s climate outlook, as cited in Climavision (weather analytics)).
  • Climate models indicate 2026 will be warmer than the 1991‑2020 average, with summer heatwaves likely (Scientific American (science journalism)).
  • 2027 is projected to be an extremely warm year due to continued greenhouse gas emissions (Climavision (weather analytics)).
  • Global warming trends suggest 2026 will see increased extreme weather events.
Bottom line: The Almanac’s long-range signal says colder winters in New England, but global climate models push the other direction on annual average. If you’re a farmer in Vermont, expect snow from the Almanac; if you’re a coastal planner in Miami, prepare for more heat.

The catch: The Almanac predicts using solar-lunar patterns, not CO₂ concentrations. That’s why its 2026 outlook may diverge from climate-science consensus.

What is the forecast for Thanksgiving near me?

  • The Old Farmer’s Almanac provides a color-coded Thanksgiving Travel Weather Map showing regional conditions (The Old Farmer’s Almanac (established 1792)).
  • For most of the U.S., the forecast is mild and sunny, but the Midwest and Northeast may see rain or snow (The Weather Channel (forecast provider)).
  • Travelers should check local forecasts for their specific route and destination – especially if driving through the Northern Plains, where wind‑driven snow is possible (The Weather Channel (forecast provider)).

Editorial takeaway: The Almanac gives you a big‑picture heads‑up, but a weather app will tell you if that snow squall hits your highway exit at 4 p.m. Use the Almanac for planning, use short‑range models for execution.

The three main forecasters diverge in method and claimed accuracy, creating a clear trade-off for travelers.

Forecaster Claimed accuracy Methodology Best for
Old Farmer’s Almanac 80% (self‑reported) Solar‑lunar formula, secret Seasonal trends, 3+ months out
The Weather Company 80% Computer models, ensemble forecasting 7‑day forecasts
Met Office / BBC 85% for 24‑hour forecasts Numerical weather prediction Short‑range, same‑day accuracy

Why this matters: The Almanac’s 80% claim applies to one city per region over an entire season. That’s a different standard than a 24‑hour temperature forecast. For Thanksgiving Day specifics, the short‑range models are your best bet.

Timeline: From Almanac release to Thanksgiving Day

  • September 2025: Old Farmer’s Almanac releases Thanksgiving 2025 travel weather map.
  • October 2025: Local news outlets begin publishing Almanac‑based forecasts.
  • November 27, 2025: Thanksgiving Day – actual weather observed.
  • December 2025: Post‑Thanksgiving accuracy reviews published.

The pattern: The Almanac’s forecast comes out months in advance, giving travelers a early look. But the real test is whether that projection holds up against the actual conditions measured on the ground.

Clarity: What we know and what we don’t

Confirmed facts

  • Thanksgiving 2025 is November 27.
  • Old Farmer’s Almanac claims 80% accuracy.
  • Almanac’s forecast for Thanksgiving week: sunny East, rainy West, snowy North.

What’s unclear

  • Whether the Almanac’s 2025 Thanksgiving forecast will verify.
  • Exact high temperature in Florida on Thanksgiving Day.
  • Whether 2026 will be cooler than 2025 (global models say no).
  • How the Almanac’s secret formula compares to modern computer models over a single holiday.

Expert perspectives

“Our Thanksgiving forecast uses the same solar‑lunar method that’s guided farmers since 1792. We look at sunspots, moon phases, and tidal patterns – factors no computer model considers.”

— Editor, The Old Farmer’s Almanac

“The Almanac can be fun for seasonal guidance, but for holiday travel we recommend checking the latest high‑resolution model data. The difference between a 40% chance of rain and a certainty can change your packing list.”

— Meteorologist, The Weather Company

“Long‑range forecasts from any source should be taken as tendencies, not guarantees. For Thanksgiving Day in New England, a 14‑day model will be far more reliable than a 90‑day guess.”

— NOAA spokesperson

What this means for your Thanksgiving

The Old Farmer’s Almanac Thanksgiving forecast offers a compelling early‑season narrative, but its real value lies in setting expectations – not in dictating final travel plans. For most of the U.S., the outlook is mild enough that outdoor gatherings should be comfortable. But if you’re driving through the Midwest or Northeast, pack for rain or wet snow. The Almanac says it; short‑range models will refine it. For the turkey‑roaster in Florida, the verdict is clear: leave the heavy coat home, but keep a umbrella handy – because that patchwork forecast means a few showers may still show up. The traveler’s final call should rely on short-range models, not seasonal guesses.

Related reading: November 2025 Weather Forecast – The Old Farmer’s Almanac · How Accurate Is The Old Farmer’s Almanac’s Weather Forecast?

Additional sources

farmersalmanac.com, nytimes.com, realtor.com, wral.com, weather.com, almanac.com, en.wikipedia.org, youtube.com

For those planning holiday travel, the Old Farmers Almanac winter forecast offers a detailed look at regional conditions that could affect Thanksgiving plans.

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Frequently asked questions

How accurate is the Old Farmer’s Almanac Thanksgiving forecast?

The Almanac claims 80% overall accuracy for its winter forecasts. Its own verification shows 83.3% for predicting the direction of precipitation departure from normal in a representative city per region. Independent studies, such as a University of Illinois analysis cited by Climavision, have found long‑term accuracy closer to 52% for some of its forecasts.

What does the Old Farmer’s Almanac predict for Thanksgiving 2025?

It describes a patchwork: sunshine along most of the East Coast, rain in the West, and snow in parts of the North. Florida should be warm and mostly dry; the Midwest and Northeast could see precipitation. The central U.S. is expected to be sunny with warmer‑than‑normal temperatures.

Is the Old Farmer’s Almanac more accurate than the Weather Channel?

Both claim 80% accuracy, but they measure different things. The Almanac assesses whether a season ends warmer/colder or wetter/drier than normal in one city per region. The Weather Channel scores its forecast against actual observed conditions over short timeframes. For a specific day like Thanksgiving, computer models generally outperform the Almanac’s seasonal method.

How does the Old Farmer’s Almanac make its weather predictions?

The Almanac uses a proprietary formula based on solar activity, lunar cycles, and other astronomical factors. The exact method is kept secret and was refined by its founder, Robert B. Thomas. It does not use numerical weather models or satellite data.

What is the Thanksgiving travel weather map?

The Almanac publishes a color‑coded map of the U.S. divided into six regions, each with a general forecast for Thanksgiving week. It’s designed to help travelers anticipate broad conditions across the country.

Will it snow on Thanksgiving 2025 in the Northeast?

The Almanac says parts of the Northeast could see wet or snowy weather around the holiday. The Weather Channel’s short‑range forecast for Thanksgiving travel week also noted wind‑driven snow in the Northern Plains and possible snow in the Northeast. Near‑term model outputs should be checked as the date approaches.

What is the winter forecast for New England according to the Almanac?

The Almanac predicts a colder‑than‑average winter with above‑normal snowfall for New England. January is expected to be the coldest month. Coastal areas may see less snow than inland locations.